Expectancy & R-multiple calculator
Win rate alone tells you nothing. Expectancy is the one number that answers "does my system make money over many trades?" — the foundation of everything Shibiki measures.
- Expectancy / trade
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- Expectancy (R)
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- Profit factor
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Reading the numbers
- · Expectancy / trade = (Win% × Avg win) − (Loss% × Avg loss). Positive = you make money on average; negative = the system bleeds.
- · Expectancy in R expresses that as a multiple of your average loss (1R). +0.4R means you net 0.4× your risk per trade — a strong, durable edge.
- · Profit factor = gross wins ÷ gross losses. Above 1.0 is profitable; 1.5+ is healthy.
One caveat a calculator can't fix: a handful of trades isn't proof. Shibiki computes your live expectancy with a Wilson confidence interval, so you know whether your edge is real or just a small-sample streak — and stops you doubting a good system after a normal drawdown.
FAQ
Can I be profitable with a win rate under 50%?
Yes — that's the whole point of expectancy. A 40% win rate with wins twice the size of losses has a strongly positive expectancy. A 70% win rate with tiny wins and huge losses can be negative.
How many trades before I trust the number?
A rough rule is 30+ for a first read and 100+ before acting on it. The wider your win/loss variance, the more trades you need — which is exactly why a confidence interval matters more than a single point estimate.
Related: position size · prop-firm drawdown